EPIMAT Seminar - Modelling Dengue Importations from Endemic to Non-Endemic Regions: Influences of Human Mobility and Climate Variability

9th April 2025 14:30 CET

Speaker

Zia Farooq, Umea University, Sweden

Abstract

The global spread of dengue is increasingly influenced by human mobility, as travel patterns connect endemic and non-endemic regions. In this talk, I will present a mathematical modelling framework that quantifies dengue imports from the endemic areas into non-endemic regions, specifically Europe and the USA. The model integrates several essential parameters, including mobility patterns driven by geographic proximity and population size, dengue incidence rates, duration of stay in dengue-endemic areas, and probability of traveling while infected, to estimate the dengue importations in space and time. We identify and map the spatial and temporal patterns of high dengue importation and exportation areas and validate the model predictions with observed data. This research enhances understanding of the intersection between climate change, global mobility, and infectious disease transmission, offering a vital tool for epidemic preparedness and public health planning.

Contact person: Laboratory of Mathematics for Biology And Medicine Research Group (Andrea Pugliese, Cinzia Soresina).

Where

room Aula Seminari 1 - Povo0, Via Sommarive 14, Trento