Winter school - Statistical aspects to epidemiological models
29-30th May 2025 08:30 CET
Speaker
Geir Storvik, University of Oslo, Norway
Abstract
Shourt course on statistical aspects to epidemiological models
Course description
Within this short course, we will discuss different aspects related to statistics and epidemiologogical models. The course will focus on methods that are useful for such settings, but will use the Covid-19 pandemic as a use case. In particular, much of the content will be related to the paper Storvik et al. (2023) where a Bayesian approach combined with sequential Monte Carlo methods were applied to a specific type of compartmental models.
Detailed content
- Models for infectious diseases
- Compartmental models, SIR, SEIR, …
- Deterministic and stochastic models
- Quantities of interest: The $R$ number, predictions
- Data
- Tests (positive/negative)
- Numbers at hospital
- Other data sources
- Inference
- Bayesian approach, priors
- Computational methods
- Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
- Particle methods/Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)
- Particle MCMC/ABC
Contact person: Prof. Veronica Vinciotti.
Where
Povo 1, room A215, Trento.